I’ll start with the bad news; it is possible for Louisiana-Monroe to pull off the upset against Auburn. After all, Louisiana-Monroe beat Alabama. I know what you’re thinking “Yeah, but Auburn beat Alabama! And Alabama didn’t beat anybody who beat Auburn last year!” You’re right. However, if you recall 2006, you’ll remember Alabama beat Arkansas and Arkansas beat Auburn! It’s possible to look at that single piece of data and conclude that Alabama had a better football team than Auburn. And that’s not the only example of Alabama beating a team that beat Auburn! The next most recent occurrence of this phenomenon happened in 1999; Alabama beat LSU even though LSU had beaten Auburn earlier in the year. Even worse, historical records show that Alabama even beat Auburn in 1999 and 2001 -the latter even occurred during this millennium!

The 2006 Arkansas games happened only a little over two years ago. So if you disregard every other piece of information, you can conclude that Alabama can beat Auburn. If Alabama can beat Auburn, then Louisiana-Monroe can beat Auburn. We MUST take this game seriously!

[EDIT - It turns out Alabama lost to Ark in 2006. Ignore what you just read. Auburn has dominated Alabama in every way imaginable since 2001.]

That said, once Auburn knows they’re going to win the game, there's really no point in 'making a statement' against Louisiana Monroe. The game’s on pay per view – so most every AP voter and coaches’ poll voter probably won’t even see highlights of the game much less the game itself. I don’t see Auburn moving in the polls any if they win by 10 or by 70. Don’t bother worrying about if Auburn would be left out of the championship game if undefeated. It won’t happen, and even if it did, not running up the score against LAMO wouldn’t be the reason.

The mystery behind Auburn's new offense is an asset which should be exploited as much as possible. It would probably be best if Franklin held back until it was time to face SEC teams. This game should be used as a nice practice and to maybe decide on a quarterback. As it stands, the depth chart lists Kodi Burns and Chris Todd as “co-starters” but based on recent comments from coaches and players, it seems that one quarterback is more “co” than the other. I expect Kodi Burns to take the first snap of the 2008 season.

Auburn also doesn’t have a definite starting punter. Ryan Shoemaker and walk on Clinton Durst are still both listed as the starter. The press is making a big deal out of Tuberville’s indecision, but Auburn doesn’t need a punter. Only coaches with defeatist attitudes name starting punters.

It’d be nice if the game turned out like it did in 2004, but that’s pretty obvious. It’d be nice if ALL football games turned out like they did in 2004. Louisiana-Monroe was also the opening game that year, which happened to be the last time Auburn unveiled a new offense with a new coordinator. From ESPN’s recap of Auburn’s opening game vs. Louisiana Monroe in 2004 entitled “Tigers' new West Coast offense roars in shutout”;

The Tigers' West Coast offense sputtered at times but still fared better than in last year's… "It's good to come out here and have a little warmup game and see where we're at," Auburn safety Junior Rosegreen said.

It wasn't quite the offensive showcase Auburn fans were hoping for against the overmatched Sun Belt Conference team, but the Tigers saved much of their playbook for Southeastern Conference play.

"We were pretty vanilla today offensively," coach Tommy Tuberville said. "That was just a small glimpse of this offense."

I think a similar outcome is very possible this year.

E-mail Mark at mark@theauburner.com
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